Tillis Out, Cooper In? Why North Carolina Just Put the Senate Back in Play
Or...Run, Roy! Run!!!
The Senate battlefield for 2026 just shifted dramatically. With Senator Thom Tillis announcing he won’t seek re-election, and popular former Governor Roy Cooper on the verge of jumping into the race, North Carolina is all of a sudden very much in play. It’s a top-tier target, and it could be the seat that decides control of the United States Senate.
For years, Thom Tillis has survived as a wobbly figure in North Carolina politics. Tillis is too Trump-y for moderates, too moderate for the MAGA base. He barely held on in 2020, winning only after his Democratic opponent imploded in an October sexting surprise. Tillis showed a modest amount of backbone over the weekend, bucking Trump and voting down the budget but he knew his future in the Republican Party was toast as soon as he did, and his retirement announcement soon followed. His departure from the political stage is not a surprise, but it could be a game-changer.
As The New York Times reports, “Mr. Tillis was already considered to be one of the two most endangered Senate Republicans.” His exit opens the door for Democrats to take on a pure MAGA candidate - and who almost certainly holds some insane, out of the mainstream views in an increasingly purple state like North Carolina. Indeed, according to Politico, the “field is frozen” while Lara Trump decides whether or not she wants to run. She previously floated a run in 2020, and briefly entertained a Senate appointment in Florida when Marco Rubio left for Foggy Bottom.
If Lara Trump passes for a third time, the Trump endorsement (and with it, the Republican nomination) would likely go to RNC Chair Michael Whatley, a true “stop the steal” wing nut who has also been put in the repeated position as RNC chair of defending Trump’s insane tariff’s, cuts to Medicaid and giveaways to billionaires.
On the Democratic side, the field is likewise frozen, waiting on one man: former Governor Roy Cooper.
The two-term ex-governor is a political anomaly in a battleground state that Trump has narrowly won three times: Roy Cooper has never lost a statewide race. Republicans didn’t even bother to field a candidate against him in 2012. Cooper was state attorney general for four terms before serving as governor from 2017 to 2025. Since leaving office, he’s been teaching at Harvard and teasing a return to the national stage. During his farewell speech in December, he declared, “I’m not done.” As of Monday, his adviser Morgan Jackson told the Times that Cooper “continues to strongly consider a run for the Senate and will decide in the coming weeks.” 
If Cooper runs, he immediately becomes the most formidable Democrat in the country’s most pivotal Senate race. He would bring unmatched name ID, fundraising muscle, and a reputation for steady, pragmatic leadership—an antidote to the chaos and extremism of Trump’s GOP.
And make no mistake: this race matters.
With Vice President J.D. Vance holding the tie-breaking vote in a 53-47 Republican-controlled Senate, Democrats need to flip four seats to take back the majority. Even if they hold tough seats in Michigan and Georgia, they’ll still need wins in North Carolina, Maine and at least two more red states. That’s a tall order, but not impossible, especially with candidates like Cooper in the mix and a Trump presidency that is hemorrhaging public support by the day.
An opportunity might be presenting itself in Texas, where nut job attorney general, Ken Paxton, is running a MAGA-inspired primary against Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton is a reactionary lunatic who was impeached, albeit unsuccessfully, by Texas Republicans and might be actually be crazy and stupid enough to be beatable.
Whoever the nominee ends up being in North Carolina that person will, by necessity, be deeply tied to Trump - an increasingly unpopular and legally embattled figure whose second term agenda has been defined by authoritarian power grabs, mass deportations, and rolling back fundamental freedoms. Remember 2018, folks.
North Carolina, with its growing cities, diverse population, and history of close statewide races, is poised to be the site of a national referendum on that agenda.
Roy Cooper’s decision will be decisive. If he runs — and all signs point to yes — Democrats will have their best shot in a generation to flip the seat. And in doing so, they just might flip the Senate.
Run, Roy! Run!!!